May 11, 2026

LPL Research explores how a potential Warsh-led Fed could reshape policy, Treasury markets, and volatility amid rising deficits and shifting demand.

May 4, 2026

LPL Research examines overlooked tech growth, assessing strong earnings, AI skepticism, and valuation opportunities for investors.
 

April 27, 2026

LPL Research assesses the case for an American Industrial Renaissance, focusing on manufacturing investment, supply‑chain resilience, and energy costs.
 

April 20, 2026

LPL Research examines the fixed income space as global bonds broaden yields and reduce U.S. concentration, offering diversified income and resilience via non‑U.S. developed and emerging markets.
 

April 13, 2026

LPL Research reviews inflation, growth, and global financial conditions, showing why the economy continues to withstand multiple shocks.
 

April 6, 2026

LPL Research looks to the past for lessons on geopolitical uncertainty and its potential impact on equities.
 

March 30, 2026

LPL Research explains why solid earnings, AI investment, and economic resilience underpin stocks, even as oil prices and volatility pressure markets.
 

March 23, 2026

LPL Research examines recent private credit activity in the face of growing sophistication from AI.
 

March 16, 2026

LPL Research explains how America’s declining reliance on oil and rising geopolitical risks shape inflation, growth expectations, and volatility in 2026.

March 9, 2026

LPL Research reviews how the Iran conflict is affecting markets, highlighting energy risks, market resilience, and what investors should watch in the weeks ahead.

March 2, 2026

Looking beyond recent dividend strategies' performance, LPL Research asks and answers the question, “How should I think about dividend stocks or building an equity income portfolio?”

February 23, 2026

Explore LPL Research’s 2026 SAA update, featuring equity shifts, bond strategy, and purposeful diversification to support steady long‑term portfolio outcomes.

February 17, 2026

LPL Research analyzes recent market activity, AI anxieties, and possible directions the new technology could be heading in.

February 9, 2026

After a stellar 2025 in which emerging market (EM) equities returned 34%, 2026 is off to a good start with the MSCI EM Index up 7% year to date. Last year’s near doubling of the S&P 500 return was driven mostly by a weakening U.S. dollar, which propped up EM returns, but attractive valuations and artificial intelligence (AI) investment played a role. This week we highlight five reasons we’ve warmed up to EM.

February 2, 2026

The Federal Reserve (Fed) enters 2026 navigating potentially constrained policy conditions as resilient growth and above‑trend inflation intersect with an increasingly unsustainable fiscal trajectory. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that federal debt growth requires eventual corrective action, even if near‑term market risks remain limited. Rising primary deficits at near full employment further limit long‑run policy flexibility, while expanding Treasury financing needs — and a growing reliance on short‑duration bills — heighten rollover risk and amplify sensitivity to the Fed’s policy rate.

January 26, 2026

Productivity growth is the key mechanism that allows the U.S. economy to expand above its long‑run trend without reigniting inflation. Recent data show U.S. nonfarm business productivity rising 4.9% in Q3 2025, a surge strong enough to counter inflationary pressures even amid solid economic growth. Beyond containing inflation, faster productivity growth also helps offset structural headwinds from slowing population growth, a shrinking labor force, and an expanding retiree cohort. Technological innovation is poised to provide the backbone for this productivity boost. The U.S. remains among the world’s productivity leaders — it ranks near the top of major advanced economies, placing it ahead of Germany, France, the U.K., Japan, and Canada.

January 20, 2026

 In this week’s Weekly Market Commentary, we explore the drivers behind the strength in metals, the associated risks, and the outlook for the durability of the rally.

January 12, 2026

Fourth quarter earnings season unofficially kicks off this week with a dozen banks and asset managers in the S&P 500 slated to report. Results will come from some big names, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM) on Tuesday; Bank of America (BAC), Wells Fargo (WFC) and Citigroup (C) on Wednesday; and Blackrock (BLK), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Morgan Stanley (MS) on Thursday. After these and the rest of the results are in, we believe there could be a continuation of an impressive streak of quarters with double-digit earnings growth, expanding profit margins despite tariffs, and another quarter of strong earnings growth from the technology sector and the AI buildout.

January 5, 2026

With 2025 behind us, it’s a good time to celebrate some of our better forecasts from last year while also reviewing some misses we can learn from. In our view, we got more right than wrong last year, but there were some misses among our tactical asset allocation recommendations. For the second straight year, as the bull market marched on, the most impactful decision we made was probably to recommend investors stay fully invested in equities at benchmark levels throughout the entire year despite elevated valuations.

December 22, 2025

2025 was a good year for most fixed income markets but we’re approaching 2026 with caution. All-in yields are still attractive for most markets, but spreads (the additional compensation for owning riskier debt) are low, suggesting investors aren’t getting paid to take on a lot of credit risk right now. Federal Reserve (Fed) policy will be key, though, in determining returns in 2026, but with a new Chair expected at the helm by May, rate volatility could remain elevated. 

December 15, 2025

The bull market appears poised to extend its run in 2026, fueled by ongoing enthusiasm around AI and further easing of monetary policy from the Fed. However, with valuations running high and midterm election years often bringing more volatility, gains may be more tempered in 2026. LPL Research suggests investors maintain current allocations near long-term targets and stay patient for pullbacks to selectively increase equity exposures. Here we feature LPL Research’s stock market for 2026, taken from Outlook 2026: The Policy Engine.

December 1, 2025

In our Weekly Market Commentary on November 17, we previewed our Outlook 2026 publication, due out on December 9. We highlighted several keys for markets next year, covering the U.S. economy, stocks, and bonds. This week, we broaden our preview and tease some other factors investors will want to consider when thinking about investing in 2026.

November 24, 2025

Third quarter earnings season winds down over the next couple of weeks and has once again met Wall Street’s high expectations. After tariff-muddled first quarter results, companies did a good job adjusting to tariffs in the second quarter and continued to do so last quarter. A strong beat rate and another quarter of double-digit earnings growth proved corporate America’s resilience, bolstered by mega cap technology’s artificial intelligence (AI) investment. Here we recap third quarter earnings season, when more stayed the same than changed. Hat tip to profit margins.

November 17, 2025

In a year that could easily be defined by a few different words — including but not limited to tariffs, technology, or more broadly, uncertainty — capital markets have plugged along splendidly. Despite a near-bear market correction in April, the S&P 500 and U.S. stocks more broadly have powered higher, hurdling obstacles nearly without interruption. The bond market has also done more than hold its own, while outside of markets, the American economy has displayed resilience as well amid a challenging backdrop. As 2025 nears its final 100 calendar days, market focus is already beginning to turn forward and attempt to reconcile what market drivers could remain in place, and what could change in the first year of the new half-decade. While not an exhaustive list, here’s some of our early keys to 2026.

November 10, 2025

Artificial intelligence (AI) makes daily headlines, and investors are questioning if businesses’ AI-related investment can continue at this pace. The money spent on data centers, software, and other AI-related investments reveal the structural shifts occurring in the economy. The latest on Commercial & Industrial (C&I) Loans gives us insights into the sustainability of this trend. If an economy wants to encourage innovation, entrepreneurship, and scientific development, businesses need a stable macro environment with price stability, strong property rights, and dynamic capital markets that can fund great ideas.

November 3, 2025

There was no shortage of headlines on both the micro and macro levels last week. Earnings season ramped up as nearly half of the S&P 500’s market cap reported third quarter (Q3) results, including a handful of mega cap companies. Monetary policy captured most of the economic spotlight as the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered on expectations of another 0.25% interest rate cut and announced an end date to its quantitative tightening (QT) program. The European Central Bank (ECB) held rates for a third straight meeting and noted monetary policy is in a “good place,” while the Bank of Japan (BOJ) also kept rates unchanged as expected. Geopolitical headlines centered on the trade truce reached last week between the U.S. and China. While the agreement is temporary, it should help ease some tariff pressures and reduce the risk of further trade escalations between the world’s two largest economies.

October 27, 2025

Even though we do not have all the official government data on the labor market, it’s no surprise that the U.S. labor market appears to be approaching stall speed. What’s concerning is the potential that the labor market goes one step further in the wrong direction and cuts jobs. Now it’s nearing stall speed, a condition where job growth slows to a level insufficient to keep pace with population growth, which does raise recession risks. Historically, hiring slowdowns have been among the earliest indicators of economic downturns because employment drives consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 70% of GDP. 

October 13, 2025

Sunday, October 12 marked the third anniversary of this bull market. Three years ago, the S&P 500 closed at 3,577 as investors feared inflation would become entrenched after wholesale prices unexpectedly accelerated. After a sharp sell-off that morning, stocks rallied and closed nicely higher that day. A rally on bad news, in hindsight, was a sign of a major inflection point. Fast forward three years, and this bull market is still going strong. But will it continue? With all the talk about a stock market “bubble” (not our characterization) driven by the market’s enthusiasm for stocks riding the artificial intelligence (AI) wave, you may be surprised to know that bull markets lasting three years tend to keep going for a while. We expect that historical pattern to play out again this time, though past performance does not guarantee future results.

October 6, 2025

We believe corporate America will follow up an outstanding second quarter earnings season with another good one in the third quarter. Support from a resilient economy, tariff mitigation measures, artificial intelligence (AI) investment, and currency should offset increasing tariff costs. With much of investors’ collective attention focused on the duration and economic impact of the government shutdown, and how to assess the outlook for the U.S. economy in the absence of government data, writing about something else this week is a nice diversion.

September 29, 2025

U.S. equity markets have bucked the weak September seasonality trend (thus far) and rallied to fresh highs this month, with the S&P 500 holding onto a 2.7% monthly gain as of September 26. The melt-up has been underpinned by the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivering on rate cut expectations without any hawkish surprises, earnings optimism, and continued support of the artificial intelligence (AI) secular growth theme. Economic data has also mostly surprised to the upside this month, including last week’s upward revision to second-quarter GDP (supported by an unexpected jump in consumer spending) and a drop in weekly jobless claims. 

September 22, 2025

During last week’s press conference after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) rate decision, Chairman Jerome Powell warned his audience there is no risk-free path for interest rates right now. Inflation is above target and growth appears resilient. We think that the soft labor market will eventually weaken inflation pressures, so the Fed is making the right call even though it may not look right from all angles. Also, a tug of war is developing as investors expect the Fed to move more aggressively than what officials signaled with the dot plots.

September 15, 2025

Global bond markets have sold off recently due to uncertainty surrounding key political changes most notably in France and Japan. Japan’s Prime Minister, Shigeru Ishiba, resigned last week, which adds a potential shift in fiscal policy to concerns about slowing monetary policy normalization. Additionally, France’s prime minister stepped down recently after losing a confidence vote after trying to pass a budget with austerity measures. Add concerns about ongoing fiscal sustainability issues in the U.K. and debt and deficit concerns in the U.S. and it makes sense that longer maturity bond yields, globally, have risen. France and the U.K. remain important buyers of U.S. Treasuries, so as their home market yields increase, U.S. rates look less attractive, which puts upward pressure on U.S. yields.

September 8, 2025

Some of you reading this title might think this commentary is about September seasonality. Sure, seasonality is part of our playbook and is getting a lot of attention right now. We would not be surprised if volatility were to pick up some this month — even though seasonality isn’t as much of a concern during positively trending markets. The playbook we’re referring to is how the stock market has historically performed after recovering from big selloffs. It’s following that playbook closely.

September 2, 2025

The winning streak for stocks continued in August, as the S&P 500 posted its fourth consecutive month of gains. It was an informative month for investors, as we learned that the labor market may not be as solid as expected, tariffs have had a minimal impact on inflation and margins thus far, corporate America and the consumer remain resilient, and the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely ready to cut rates later this month. This backdrop propelled the broader market up nearly 2% last month and to its 20th record high of the year on Thursday.